The monthly report released by the Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (Abrapa) shows that as of the end of June, Brazil's cumulative cotton exports for 2024/25 were 2.708 million tons, an increase of 7.7% compared to the same period in 2023/24 (August 2023 to June 2024), the highest export level in history for the same period. In the first 11 months of 2024/25, China imported 446800 tons of Brazilian cotton, accounting for only 17% of Brazil's total cotton exports, a significant decrease from the previous year.

According to Abrapa's statistics, as of around July 15th, Brazil's 2025 new cotton harvest is 15% complete, processing is 4.4% complete, inspection is 2% complete, but cotton sales are 65% complete, and new cotton sales in 2026 are 22% complete. Although Chinese companies are not actively signing contracts (due to factors such as insufficient export traceability orders, shortage of cotton import quotas, and slightly higher FOB/CNF quotes for Brazilian cotton), the overall sales progress of Brazilian cotton in 2024/25 is not slow. The industry judgment is mainly related to the following factors:

Firstly, in the first half of 2025, Southeast Asian countries are "competing for exports" of cotton products, and since June, Vietnam, India, Indonesia and other countries have successively reached trade agreements with the Trump administration, resulting in strong export performance of cotton textiles and cotton clothing to the US and EU markets, and continued optimism for medium - and long-term demand for Brazilian cotton, US cotton and other cotton products.

Secondly, according to the survey, as of 2024/25, several large cotton trading enterprises have signed contracts for the sale of Brazilian cotton, and there are not many specific cotton textile enterprises (actual users) from various countries who have signed contracts. Brazilian cotton resources mainly flow into the hands of intermediaries in the short term, with a prominent role as a "reservoir".

Thirdly, the Brazilian real has depreciated significantly, which is beneficial for buyers to enter the market and purchase goods. At the end of 2024, the real fell 27.2% against the US dollar, marking the largest annual decline since 2020 and the most devalued currency among G20 countries. On July 9, 2025, Trump announced that he would impose a 50% tariff on Brazil starting from August 1, causing the real to depreciate by 2.9% against the US dollar.

Fourth, in 2024/25, the grade of Australian cotton declined significantly. In addition, the Trump government still had differences in tariff negotiations with cooperative partners in Southeast Asia, South America and other countries. In 2024/25, the Brazilian cotton weather was awesome. Cotton production was not only high, but the proportion of SM grade, 1-5/32 and above indicators was expected to continue to increase compared with the previous two years. The substitution for Australian cotton and American cotton was becoming stronger and stronger. Therefore, some trade enterprises/cotton using enterprises were "racing" to sign new Brazilian cotton.